I’m pretty sure the problem is NI has too much debt, monetarily.
I don’t have NI’s financial statements or a timeline of their acquisitions in front of me. But, if memory serves, they’ve done a lot of acquisitions over the last 5 years or so. Izotope, Brainworx, and PA are probably the biggest, but I could be forgetting something. Usually, that is done with debt. If they pulled that debt before covid or shortly after while interest rates were low, they got a great deal. If they continued spending like that as interest rates rose following covid, that was getting more expensive. Alternatively, they might have locked low interest rates in on the original loans, but now those original loans are coming due and they need to refinance (very common in business to not actually pay off a full loan and instead just refi at the end of the term). Interest rates are higher now, so any refinancing is probably going to be more expensive then their original loan. Essentially, one way or another, my guess is they’re being eaten alive on the interest costs stemming from their acquisitions.
Unfortunately, I don’t have this statement in front of me, but I remember them saying something to the effect of “by acquiring izotope we want to be a one stop shop for all the budding music producers out there” (and announcing Komplete Start shortly after). And 5-6 years ago, I think that was reasonable. I remember seeing their market estimate for what they thought growth of their sales would be and thinking “music production would have to become almost as popular a hobby as gaming for that to pan out”, which I didn’t think was super realistic. But at the time I didn’t think it was going to drag the business under because they were at least acquiring independently profitable businesses, probably going to streamline operations/distribution for a bit of extra margin, and be able to pay down their debt one way or another.
Then generative AI happened. I’m not saying that’s replaced music production, nor do I think it’s going to any time soon. BUT, I do think that generative AI has taken a swathe of people who might have gotten into music production and become potential customers for NI (or any other audio software company) and turned them into prompt engineers. And I think that hurt NI the most because they were specifically targeting that new, hobbyist, first time customer. And I think that exact customer is the one who is most likely to see how difficult music production can be at first and decide to just prompt an AI for the song they want to make instead.
So now NI has all this debt, sales aren’t up like they expected, AND they have to refinance at less favorable terms. If they’re going to go through bankruptcy they might get a slightly better deal by getting some of that debt forgiven, but nobody is going to give a company that just failed the rate they got back in 2020 on restructured debt.
I think this pulls most private equity ventures out of the picture because they primarily use debt as their funding vehicle. Their most common move is to use a leveraged buyout, where they take on a bunch of debt to buy the company. Then as soon as they take ownership they put the debt into the company name and make the company pay them back for buying them in the first place. Yes, it is exactly as fucked up as it sounds, I’ve been through one. But as I’ve already assumed the problem is NI has too much debt already, that’s not really a viable strategy.
So, a more likely player would be one of the few bigger companies in music that has the cash on hand (or can issue equity to fund the acquisition, is anyone public or about to IPO in the music space?). Or maybe one of these music AI companies that wants the cred and brand of an established player. Maybe someone doing well adjacent to the creative industry like Adobe? Maybe Ricky Tinez uses some influence at Apple and tells them to pounce on this? IDK. The only difference between reality and fiction is that fiction has to make sense.
If no one aquires them, NI is going to need some fast cash. So I’d expect some selloffs/spinoffs of the things that aren’t printing money for them. At some point you’re left with a core NI business that is too bloated and needs to streamline and modernize their product portfolio. I suspect they’re smart enough to realize that NI is possibly the most troubled part of the business so I think they sell off PA/BX for fast cash and keep IZ to maintain future cashflow while they reorient themselves.