As a numbers guy, the biggest problem I see is rising inequality between the rich and poor. America was founded on the ideal that anyone could come here and get as far as they wanted. Seriously, people could come over with nothing, work as indentured servants for 7 years to earn their freedom, start from zero, and be a voting landholder within their lifetime. Europe couldn’t offer that at the time, so people came.
I won’t sit here and say we got everything right. When we ran out of people willing to trade years of their lives to earn their way over here, we turned to slavery in the single biggest mistake America has ever (and hopefully will ever) make. And we have fumbled trying to back out of that ever since.
But the fact is, America is the home of more rags to riches stories than any country in history, and I think that is an important part of our culture. And I think it’s becoming increasingly less and less possible to make that happen anymore. There’s a lot of little things that add up to this, but the fact is the rich keep getting richer, out earning the rest of us, and are also politically connected to drive policy in a direction that favors themselves at the expense of the ordinary person.
Every country in history that has gone this way has ended up worse off. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the period of largest economic growth in history in the world (two decades after WWII) was marked by increased government regulation, increased taxes on the wealthy (as high as 90% in the US back then, if you can believe it), and reduced inequality between the rich and poor. I wasn’t alive and I’m not calling for a return to the “good old days” where it was OK to be racist - I’m saying the government can’t pull it’s head out of it’s ass and balance the budget because it’s being puppeted by the rich who don’t want to pay a 90% tax rate to get us back on track. And I think I speak for us all when I say the government isn’t going to get the money it needs from us. If I gave the government everything I earned, it wouldn’t make a dent in our budget. If Bezos had to give 1% of his accumulated wealth every year, it would add up.
But the government isn’t going to do that because people like Bezos bankroll both sides and would rather keep their piece of pie and watch society crumble than pay more than what they feel is their fair share. I’m not saying that’s right or wrong, that’s just how it is, and I DO think it’s a problem. And it isn’t as easy as just raising taxes to 90% anymore. It used to be difficult to move money around the world, so a 90% US tax rate was something you actually had to pay as a US citizen. These days, when you have that much money you can be a citizen of anywhere you want. So if the US ever DID actually tax the rich like in the good ol days, they would just leave and go live in the caymans or something. This already happens at an interstate level, do you think all the rich people live down in Florida for the weather or the company? NO, Bezos moved down there to save tens of billions in dollars of taxes he would owe if he lived in Washington. For someone that rich, moving country is like one extra signature than moving state.
So, what’s going to happen is the US is either going to make some hard decisions and fully gut our internal services or our military to make ends meet. And you are just starting to see the beginnings of what that will look like thanks to DOGE. OR, we could always just default on our debt and fuck the whole world order. Either way, that’s what the fall of Rome is going to look like before Western society dips into a new dark age.
Non-western society’s problem is that most of the successful/growing ones depend on us to buy shit from them. So if we stop that they don’t have anyone to invest in getting them to our level, and their progress slows down too. Maybe they can trade amongst each other and not backslide, but they’re not going to suddenly loot us, take our advanced manufacturing capabilities, and pick up where we left off in 5-10 years. It’s decades at least before they can step in and fill the void, likely more.
The solution is drugs and sex. Enjoy it while you can, because my very pessimistic outlook is that no one has the power to do anything about this has the incentive to do so.