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Old 24-02-2017, 12:13 AM   #1
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We've come a long way..

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Makes me feel really lucky and privileged when I now look at my little 128mb pen drive, that I used to view as being outdated and too small. But just 61 years ago they were dealing with huge monoliths like the one pictured above, which were a mere 5mb each!

And we won't even get into how much those babies cost back then..compared to what we pay today for a pen-drive/USB key!

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Old 24-02-2017, 01:00 AM   #2
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Re: We've come a long way..

I can't really comprehend anything computer based before the 60s, even if it is only four years earlier. Do you think those bystanders had any comprehension of what that is?

Even those in the know must have had such a different perception of what it is than we would have.
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Old 24-02-2017, 01:28 AM   #3
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Re: We've come a long way..

You can fit like 5,242,880 bits on that thing! That's a shitload of bits, bruh. Probably more ones than zeros.
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Old 24-02-2017, 02:06 AM   #4
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Re: We've come a long way..

Here's another one that kinda puts it into clear perspective (..as if it wasn't already! ).

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I've got a few more "Then and Now" images to post up here..if any of you have any and want to share, then please feel free.

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Old 24-02-2017, 02:20 AM   #5
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Re: We've come a long way..

ENIAC was possibly first Turing-complete digital computer in 1946 and had 5 million hand soldered connections. Completely fucking amazing. That was 10 years before the world would be amazed by things like electric blenders and self-cleaning ovens. There's probably all sorts of psychological reasons like getting over war and only dealing with the shit in front of you for the limited scope, but I think that there's been a real imagination gap by the general public until probably the Moon landing.

Computing goes back to the Greeks with the Antikythera mechanism (150 BC?), Charles Babbage wrote up plans for his Difference Engine in the 1820s, and John von Neumann was trying to figure out how you'd actually implement Alan Turing's ideas of artificial intelligence in the 1940s. Yet the common person had no idea what those things were or what they can accomplish. They were still getting their heads around affordable combustion engines. Put another way, mathematicians and physicists were laying the groundwork for quantum mechanics while it was still ok for 10 year olds to go to work in factories. Seems there's always been a disconnect between scientific progress and the public's understanding of it.

Most of the issue probably revolved around costs - the aforementioned ENIAC cost $500,000 in 1940s dollars - everything was made by hand through the 60s, designed by engineers for specific tasks, not unlike modern supercomputers. Transistors didn't come around until almost 1960 which is what ultimately allowed for the mass production and proliferation of computers. Even by the late 70s and early 80s you could still get vacuum tube radios and TVs, and computers were multi-room affairs in college campuses and government buildings. It's like the general public skipped from blenders to Star Trek and have to go back and catch up to computers.

As someone that grew up before the internet, it's been fascinating to watch the acceleration of information and understanding. It seems that once digital devices came into the picture, you started off on Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns where intelligence grows exponentially. I'm not sure I buy into that whole hog, but it seems at least somewhat plausible given the way the internet has changed literally everything in less that a lifetime.

On a related note, one of the things that really dates an older movie or TV show for me is the methods of communication - rotary phone/huge ass cell phone/pager/flip phone/modern phone (which will look dated in 5 years).

Slightly relevant and totally cool - magnetic core memory, for when you just have to have hand wound DIMMs

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Old 24-02-2017, 02:23 AM   #6
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Re: We've come a long way..

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The image above makes you wonder where they're going to take us next, as there's a lot of talk about a number of possibilities, but my money is on Quantum computers.

The image below though has to be a joke..or pure ignorance, tinged with wishful thinking on the part of the person who put it together. All you have to do is look at the images of the old huge IMB things that came out AFTER the thing below was supposed to have been made..

Plus there's the little fact know to all as Alan Turing and his "Turing machine" that he cobbled together back in 1936.

What do you guys think?

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Old 24-02-2017, 02:31 AM   #7
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Re: We've come a long way..

More music-related than the others..

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Old 24-02-2017, 03:34 AM   #8
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Re: We've come a long way..

How long until we reach the (Technologic) Singularity?

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Old 24-02-2017, 06:59 AM   #9
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Re: We've come a long way..

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ENIAC was possibly first Turing-complete digital computer in 1946 and had 5 million hand soldered connections. Completely fucking amazing.
Even more amazing to me is that the fundamental mechanisms required to do computer operations really haven't changed that much since. Just the transistors have been redesigned, refined and miniaturised to the point that we are nearing the atomic level or something like that.

Will be interesting to see new computing media evolve. Like in 20-30 years time people will be saying, "Can you believe DNA storage used to cost $12,000 per megabyte?"

And then someone will probably ask, "What's a megabyte?"

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Computing goes back to the Greeks with the Antikythera mechanism (150 BC?),
Man that device could accurately compute the exact cycle of the sun and moon backwards and forwards. I read somewhere that a lot of people believe it was an invention of Archimedes and that its loss in antiquity set civilisation back something like 2,000 years (next clockwork wasn't seen till 16th-17th century or something like that).

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Old 24-02-2017, 07:14 AM   #10
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Re: We've come a long way..

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Even more amazing to me is that the fundamental mechanisms required to do computer operations really haven't changed that much since. Just the transistors have been redesigned, refined and miniaturised to the point that we are nearing the atomic level or something like that.

Will be interesting to see new computing media evolve. Like in 20-30 years time people will be saying, "Can you believe DNA storage used to cost $12,000 per megabyte?"

And then someone will probably ask, "What's a megabyte?"



Man that device could accurately compute the exact cycle of the sun and moon backwards and forwards. I read somewhere that a lot of people believe it was an invention of Archimedes and that its loss in antiquity set civilisation back something like 2,000 years (next clockwork wasn't seen till 16th-17th century or something like that).
For sure. I guess that's what I was getting at with the pics of the core memory - we're still just storing and doing basic addition and subtraction on 0s and 1s, flipping switches on and off. There's been no paradigm shift in the fundamental process. I'm totally excited about whatever comes next. I hope I'm around to see it.

It occurs to me that we're approaching a time where there are adults that have never been without a computer at their side and instant access to the collected knowledge of the world. That's a bit freaky. People talk about the Singularity - I'm not sure we're not living in it.

I remember the first time I read about the Antikythera doohicky. It awakened some nascent primal steampunk thing in me and I just thought it was the coolest artifact ever. Then I learned what it actually was and decided it was way cooler than it looked...
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Old 24-02-2017, 07:57 AM   #11
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Re: We've come a long way..

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Will be interesting to see new computing media evolve. Like in 20-30 years time people will be saying, "Can you believe DNA storage used to cost $12,000 per megabyte?"

And then someone will probably ask, "What's a megabyte?"
Regarding the whole DNA storage thing..I only found out that it was a real thing in April of last year, when I saw the piece linked below about Technicolor working out how to store millions of movies in a drop of synthetic DNA..

But I just did a search online and it seems this has been cooking since at least as far back as 2012..and obviously a long time before that, given Harvard announced they cracked DNA storage in 2012. (See relevant link below..)

Aug 17, 2012 : Harvard cracks DNA storage, crams 700 terabytes of data into a single gram

Apr 08, 2016 : DNA Data Storage Moves Beyond Moore’s Law

Apr 10, 2016 : Technicolor figured out how to store millions of movies in synthetic DNA

Apr 27, 2016 : Microsoft experiments with DNA storage: 1,000,000,000 TB in a gram

It's actually stunning to see how many companies out there have been rushing to get their own little piece of this pie, with each declaring they have "discovered" how to do stuff that applies to their own area of business..and you can bet your ass they've the patents already filed, too.

Regarding the point about moving beyond Moore's Law (..the observation by Gordon E. Moore, that the number of components on a chip seemed to double every year ), it's interesting to note that in just 4 YEARS we've gone and jumped from Harvard announcing they can put 700 TB into a gram..to Microsoft experimenting with 1,000,000,000 TB in a gram!

Any brave soul want to hazard a guess as to how long it's going to take before we see this tech in our stores?

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Old 24-02-2017, 08:05 AM   #12
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Re: We've come a long way..

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The image above makes you wonder where they're going to take us next, as there's a lot of talk about a number of possibilities, but my money is on Quantum computers.

The image below though has to be a joke..or pure ignorance, tinged with wishful thinking on the part of the person who put it together. All you have to do is look at the images of the old huge IMB things that came out AFTER the thing below was supposed to have been made..

Plus there's the little fact know to all as Alan Turing and his "Turing machine" that he cobbled together back in 1936.

What do you guys think?

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"This is how the first computer looked like"
Seems legit.

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Old 24-02-2017, 08:08 AM   #13
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Re: We've come a long way..

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"This is how the first computer looked like"
Seems legit.
My thoughts EXACTLY!

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Old 24-02-2017, 08:13 AM   #14
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Re: We've come a long way..

Apparently Hanson has come a long way. They're still a band, lol

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Old 24-02-2017, 08:17 AM   #15
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Re: We've come a long way..

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Apparently Hanson has come a long way. They're still a band, lol

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Old 24-02-2017, 09:11 AM   #16
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Re: We've come a long way..

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Regarding the point about moving beyond Moore's Law (..the observation by Gordon E. Moore, that the number of components on a chip seemed to double every year ), it's interesting to note that in just 4 YEARS we've gone and jumped from Harvard announcing they can put 700 TB into a gram..to Microsoft experimenting with 1,000,000,000 TB in a gram!
Regarding Moore's Law, you've mis-paraphrased it, which is totally fine because everyone misquotes it. It's actually:
Quote:
The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase.
The costs bit is what everyone always leaves out but it's really at the crux of his statement. He was talking about the economics of scale, not scale itself. It becomes a lot like the idea of Social Darwnism which is totally not a real thing (applying evolutionary genetics to social norms), but you can find hints of it if you look hard enough. Moore was saying a thing about costs but everyone wants to make it about transistors, and through hard work and total coincidence it happened to be true for a long time.

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Any brave soul want to hazard a guess as to how long it's going to take before we see this tech in our stores?
20 years? It's incredibly hard to say. It's the difference between putting a man on the moon and taking day trips there. Much like the transistor manufacturing allowing computers in every home, it's going to take a manufacturing breakthrough to allow the commodification of DNA/organic storage and let everyone have it at home. It could be tomorrow, it could be never. I'll split the difference and say 20 years.
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Old 24-02-2017, 09:28 AM   #17
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Re: We've come a long way..

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Regarding Moore's Law, you've mis-paraphrased it..
Thanks for pointing that out..you learn something new every day, as they say. I'd never heard about the cost part before..any time I've ever heard it mentioned, it's always been in relation to the actual doubling of memory / computing power..and lately it's started to be mentioned in connection with Quantum computers and the rate at which their processing abilities as growing each year.

You'd think people would be clearer about something so widely quoted, wouldn't you?

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Old 24-02-2017, 10:00 AM   #18
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Re: We've come a long way..

You'd think, right? But for certain values it actually means the same thing - given a somewhat stable economy, normal R&D and no crazy advances in manufacturing, you can almost omit the costs as it's a relatively static value, which is exactly what people did. There's actually a 'Moore's Second Law' that suggests that because of the necessary increase in R&D and production retooling, semiconductor fabrication costs will increase exponentially as well, which is why the costs keeps up with the increased density and you can ignore the cost part most of the time.

It has held true for years (Moore predicted 10 years in 1965), and I think it probably came to be associated with doubling the density of chips, but that was the result, not the basis.

The interesting thing about Moore is he was one of the guys that started Intel, so he not only had an interest in the technology and engineering but a financial stake in it as well. He was used to looking at both technology and money as a reflection of each other. He actually made that comment about doubling somewhat off-the-cuff during a magazine interview. It's not like it was the culmination of decades of hard research, it was just his gut feeling about where the industry was heading.

The fact that it maintained true at all kind of blows my mind. It makes me think that people picked it up as a mantra and made it a self-fulfilling prophecy more that Moore being right.
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Old 24-02-2017, 10:14 AM   #19
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Re: We've come a long way..

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Even more amazing to me is that the fundamental mechanisms required to do computer operations really haven't changed that much since. Just the transistors have been redesigned, refined and miniaturised to the point that we are nearing the atomic level or something like that.
The newest process hitting consumer products this month is a 14 nanometer process from TSMC (they make AMD's chips, last I checked). My 5 year old PC uses 45 nanometer parts, and I think Intel is targeting 2018 for their 10 nm parts to hit widespread use, though that's been delayed a few times already, we'll see. I really don't have much point of reference for other stuff that small, (I think a pretty good 3d printer is accurate down to 900 or so nanometers, last I checked).

The issue with going any smaller is indeed that the electrons we use to represent 0s and 1s (via their presence or absence) just don't behave like particles that we can stop and start the flow of as in a pipe, they begin to behave more like a wave or presence (from my understanding) at the quantum physics level (and quantum physics is what you get into when you get into the behavior of the parts of atoms). As I was taught for use in chemistry, we don't say that an electron is at some precise point. Rather, we can say with some degree of certainty that it is in some bounds of three dimensional space. As the space gets smaller, the certainty that an electron is present within said space goes down. So as we shrink transistors, we have to work with smaller spaces and less certainty of our bits until we have to do so much error correction that there's no performance benefit from further shrinking.

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Old 24-02-2017, 10:16 AM   #20
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Re: We've come a long way..

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20 years?
...

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